Category: Betting Tips

Everton vs Spurs

Both sides come into this one on the back of defeat in the Premier League. Everton will be hoping to continue their strong home form, the toffees are yet to lose a league game at home. But they face a Spurs side that have performed much better on their travels than when they are at the London Stadium.

1u: Total goals over 2.5 (-110)

The stats would suggest that both these sides score and concede goals in these encounters. So I’m going to lean towards that today.

Key Stats:

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

The Gunners have the chance to extend their advantage over champions Liverpool to 7pts if they win today. They will face a tough test in Crystal Palace, who beat Liverpool themselves a month ago with a stoppage time winner by former Arsenal man Eddie Nketiah.

1u: Arsenal ML & over 1.5 goals (-163)

With the stats below, I’d suggest Arsenal will capitalise on this opportunity and get the job done early in the first 60 minutes today.

Key Stats:

• Arsenal have won just 2 of their L5 home games against sides between 7th-16th in the table.
• Arsenal have won 13 in their L20, in which 77% of those games have over 2.5 goals.

• Crystal Palace have just 2 wins in 15 against top 7 sides away from home.
• In their last 20 away games agains top 8 sides, they average 2.6 goals against.

Chelsea vs Sunderland

Chelsea will be looking to climb back into the top four tomorrow as they host newly promoted Sunderland at Stamford Bridge. The two sides face off for the first time in just under 10 years, when Antonio Conte’s blues smashed Sunderland 5-1 in a season that saw the black cats relegated from the top flight.

However there is a different energy and sense of anticipation around tomorrow’s fixture. Sunderland have started the season well, Taking 14 pts in 8 games and conceding just 6 goals along the way. Régis Le Bris’ side have the tied best 2nd defensive record in the league so far.

1u: Chelsea -1.5 (+100)

When Sunderland lose against the better sides, usually it is by more than a single goal. I’m expecting Chelsea to comfortably win this encounter.

Key Stats:

• Chelsea have won 7 in 8 against teams 10th-20th (where Sunderland will finish)
• Chelsea ML & over 2,5 goals has landed in 5/10 matches.
• Chelsea ML & BTTS no has landed in 5/10 matches.

• Sunderland have lost 8/10 of matches against top 10 sides.
• When Sunderland have lost in these games, on 11/14 occasions they have lost by more than one goal.

Liverpool will be looking to put an end to their three game losing streak as they host Man Utd. The reds endured three away defeats in the space of a week, two of which came in stoppage time at the hands of Crystal Palace & Chelsea.

Meanwhile Man Utd continue to stumble and faulter under Ruben Amorim’s leadership. A dismal 1-3 loss away to Brentford, was sandwiched in between two average performances at home which saw them beat newly promoted Sunderland 2-0 and 10 men Chelsea 2-1.

Our Prediction:

1u: Total Goals under 3.5 (-151)

I think this will be a cagey encounter and closer than people expect. Manchester United have controlled many games this season, despite failing to get a great start. Liverpool’s attack looks slightly disjointed with Salah not hitting the heights we are used to.

Key Stats:

• Liverpool record 15-3-2 in L20 home games vs 7th-16th.
• Man Utd record 2-4-14 in L20 away games vs top 8.
• Liverpool haven’t covered -1.5 goals at home in L8 vs 7th-16th
• Over 2.5 goals in 70% of Liverpool’s L10 against 7th-16th clubs.
• Over 2.5 goals in 60% of Man Utd’s L10 away to top 8 clubs.

Final:

1u: Rybakina -2.5 games (-133)

Ekaterina Alexandrova made it two finals from four tournaments in the Asian swing after breezing past Diana Shnaider. She hasn’t dropped a set in her route to the final.

Elena Rybakina continues to strengthen her chances of dislodging Jasmine Paolini or Mirra Andreeva from a spot in Riyadh. She smashed the Italian in straight sets earlier today.

Summary:

Alexandrova leads the H2H battle 4-1, but the bookmakers have covered the markets fairly well. Stats suggest Alexandrova should cover the +2.5 game spread, but I’m not entirely convinced.

Key Stats:

Semi Finals:

Paolini vs Rybakina

It’s been a top season for Jasmine Paolini, with a 43-17 record and a singles title victory in her home country, not many have won more in 2025.

One player that has won more games on tour this season is her opponent tomorrow Elena Rybakina. The World number 9 has won 49 matches this season and is making a late surge to try and qualify for the WTA finals in Riyadh.

Both players had contrasting previous round matches. Jasmine Paolini came back from a set down to beat Belinda Bencic 5-7 7-5 6-3. Rybakina lost just two games as she smashed Tomljanovic 6-2 6-0.

Key Stats:

• Rybakina has 5/7 wins in her L7 matches against top 25 opposition.
• Paolini has won just 2/7 in her L7 matches against top 25 opposition.

Whilst the stats would suggest Paolini is a favourable pick in several markets (+3.5 games, +1.5 sets), I wouldn’t confidently recommend either of these selections.

I think recent history would suggest Rybakina is handling top opposition better than the Italian and after a lengthy QF matchup, how much left does Paolini have in the tank?

Our Pick- 1u: Total Games under 21.5 (-110)

Quarter Finals:

Tomljanovic vs Rybakina:

It’s been a challenging season for Tomljanovic, who has lost as many games as she has won and found herself hovering around the top 100.

Rybakina on the other hand has been really strong and still has a chance to creep into the top 8 for the WTA finals in Riyadh. But to keep these hopes alive she must win the Ningbo Open and hope results go her way.

Key Stats:

• Tomljanovic has lost her last 16 matches against top 25 ranked opponents
• Rybakina has won 7/10 of her last 10 matches against opponents ranked 75-125.
• Rybakina has only covered a -5.5 game spread on just 3 of her last 10.

Kessler vs Alexandrova:

Kessler has had a breakout season to rise to the top 35 in the world. She has been competitive against the world’s best. Alexandrova has had her best season to date as well reaching the top 10 in the world and winning a title along with it.

Whilst the stats would suggest that Kessler is a good pick, I think Alexandrova will have too much for the American.

1u: Alexandrova -3.5 Games (-110)

Key stats:

Paolini vs Bencic:

The stats are interesting here because they don’t massively lean towards any clear bets. The only one that statistically looks likely is that Bencic will win a set and cover the +1.5 set spread.

Overall I would give the edge to Paolini in this matchup, I believe her speed and court coverage will wear Bencic down. So that’s my reason for recommending two bets for this match.

I think Paolini -2.5 Games & Bencic +1.5 Sets are both reasonable bets to make. However you will want to analyse in game to capture any notable value.

Round of 16: Rybakina vs Yastremska

1u: Yastremska +5.5 Games (-118)

Despite Rybakina’s dominance of players ranked outside the top 25, she has been lacklustre of late. She also rarely covers a spread so large in these type of matchups.

Yastremska on the other hand has been steadily improving and had a strong year, she will likely make this competitive if she minimises errors.

Key Stats & Information Below:

Pegula vs Gauff

An exciting All American showdown will decide the winner of the Wuhan 1000 tournament.

The sixth seed Pegula stunned World number 1 Sabalenka after coming back from an almost impossible position down 2-5 in the third.

Gauff on the other hand cruised past Paolini winning 6-4 6-3, however that doesn’t tell the full story. She served 7 double faults and was broken in half of her service games.

Our Bets:

1u: Pegula +2.5 Games (-110)

1u: Pegula ML (+125)

Sabalenka vs Pegula

This is an exciting matchup between two players that have already secured qualification to the WTA finals.

When you look at the matchup, the bookmakers offer some value to Pegula on the spread. It’s difficult to confidently back the American even with this assistance, but I would potentially look to get an in play value bet on her if the opportunity arises.

Key Facts:

• Both players are equally effective at covering their game spread (on 60% of matches)
• Pegula is marginally better at covering a +1.5 set handicap (65%) vs Sabalenka who wins in straight sets 60% of the time.
• Both players tend to see encounters against top 25 players go under 22.5 games around 66% of the time.

Gauff vs Paolini

Based on the numbers, I give Gauff the edge in this matchup. She has consistently performed better against top 25 ranked players. Some will favour Paolini after her devastating performance against Swiatek, but I don’t think she will back it up.

1u: Gauff ML (-143)

1u: Gauff -1.5 Games (-118)

Key Facts:

Swiatek vs Paolini

If you dive into the numbers in the past year, Swiatek is much stronger against top 25 ranked players than Paolini. The Italian has lost just under 70% of her 19 encounters against top 25 opponents, including 3/3 defeats to Swiatek.

The past year’s statistics would suggest that Paolini is able to cover the game spread and potentially extend this match over 19.5 games. But I’m not convinced, any plays I make will be in favour of Swiatek.

Recommendation:

• See how the match starts and look to capitalise on Swiatek -1.5 sets or Swiatek against the game spread if the opportunity presents itself.

Key Facts:

• Swiatek won 65% of matches against top 25 players in last year (24 wins, 13 losses)
• Paolini won 32% of matches against top 25 players (6 wins, 13 losses)

Siniakova vs Pegula

1u: Pegula -3.5 Games (-118)

Based on the numbers, Pegula looks a highly favourable pick against the spread in most markets. However the one callout would be it seems like a trap line, because bookmakers haven’t looked to cover price at all.

That’s why we are only backing the single market here.

Key Facts:

• In the past season, Pegula has won 17/20 matches against players ranked between 51-100.
• In 75% of these matches, Pegula won in straight sets, covering a -3.5 game spread in 80% of encounters.
• On the flip side, Siniakova has just 3/14 victories against top 35 ranked players.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka

1u: Rybakina vs Sabalenka over 22.5 Games (-110)

1u: Sabalenka -1.5 games (-125)

This is a difficult match to call. Based on overall quality and experience against top players, you would favour Sabalenka. However in the past year, Rybakina has beaten the World Number 1 on 2/3 occasions.

Our instinct says that this match will go the distance and be a 3 setter or 2 tightly contested sets. If Sabalenka returns well, then Rybakina will struggle to compete.

Key Facts:

• Overall Sabalenka leads the H2H’s 7-5.
• In the last 3 meetings, Rybakina would have covered +1.5 game spread on each match.
• Typically Rybakina’s game against top 25 players go over 22.5 games, but Sabalenka’s go under.
• Sabalenka has a 77% win percentage against top 25 players this year across 31 matches.

Gauff vs Zhang

Key Facts:

• In the past two seasons, Gauff hasn’t lost to a player ranked outside the top 100 on 16 occasions.
• Zhang has a dismal record against players in the top 25, losing 9/10 meetings.

In terms of covering the spread, Zhang hasn’t been helped much by +5.5 games. Gauff is dominant against lower ranked opposition, covering the spread on 10/16 meetings.

Our Selection:

1u: Gauff -5.5 games (+120)