Category: Betting Tips

ATP Shanghai Masters QF’s:

Djokovic vs Bergs

1u: Bergs +1.5 sets (-105)

It is a difficult matchup to call on this one. Both players have limited experience playing against their opponents ranking band in recent years.

Djokovic due to lack of tournaments entered, & Bergs failing to get late enough in tournaments to meet the world’s best.

Key stats below are based on:

  • Djokovic: 12 ATP tour matches against players ranked 26-50 in 2024 & 25.
  • Bergs: 14 ATP tour matches against players ranked 1-25 in 2024 & 25.

Premier League Matchday 7

Brentford vs Man City:

1u: Man City ML & Over 1.5 goals (-120)

Key Facts:

  • Man City won 60% of matches against opposition ranked around Brentford’s league position in 2024/25
  • Brentford on the flip side lost 60% of these encounters against top 5 opponents in 2024/25
  • For both sides over 2.5 goals regularly hit in these type of encounters last season
  • Man City won only 1 of first 3 away league games
  • Brentford unbeaten at home this season

Despite some of the more recent statistics in favour of Brentford getting a result at home, we think Manchester City will have too much firepower in the attack.

We believe a Man City win and over 1.5 goals offers the best value, and is relatively low risk.

Aston Villa vs Burnley:

2u: Aston Villa ML (-157)

Key Facts:

  • When Aston Villa faced a bottom 5 team last season, they won 60% of the matches
  • When Burnley faced a team just below bottom half of the table in the 2023/24 season, they lost 50% of the time.
  • Villa unbeaten in L3 Premier League games
  • Burnley lost 4 in L5 Premier League games
  • Under 2.5 goals landed in 80% of these types of matches for Burnley, with just 40% going under for Aston Villa last season.

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest

Key Facts:

  • Newcastle won 40% of games against sides between 11th-15th last season
  • Nottingham forest lost 50% of similar games last season
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 70% of similar games for Forest last season
  • Important to consider that Forest are in a very different situation than last season, after the bizarre sacking of Nuno Santo

Overall the markets have been pretty well covered here, with the bookies expecting a Newcastle win and plenty of goals.

However our stats suggest that backing Newcastle isn’t necessarily a sure thing, despite the turmoil Forest are in. So no tips from us on this one.

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Key Facts:

  • Difficult to separate these two sides in terms of matchups and how they compare statistically
  • Crystal Palace will hold the edge as they look to extend their unbeaten run to 20 games in all competitions
  • The bookmakers have the odds completely open in this encounter, but expect there to be less than 2.5 goals (-162)

We don’t see any value on this match to be placing a bet on it, but we are intrigued to see if Palace can extend their unbeaten run to 20 games.

Saturday 4th October:

2u: Manchester United & Arsenal ML (-125)

1u: Leeds vs Spurs Under 2.5 goals (-118)

Friday 3rd October:

1u: Bournemouth vs Fulham Under 2.5 goals (-137)