Brentford vs Man City:
1u: Man City ML & Over 1.5 goals (-120)
Key Facts:
- Man City won 60% of matches against opposition ranked around Brentford’s league position in 2024/25
- Brentford on the flip side lost 60% of these encounters against top 5 opponents in 2024/25
- For both sides over 2.5 goals regularly hit in these type of encounters last season
- Man City won only 1 of first 3 away league games
- Brentford unbeaten at home this season
Despite some of the more recent statistics in favour of Brentford getting a result at home, we think Manchester City will have too much firepower in the attack.
We believe a Man City win and over 1.5 goals offers the best value, and is relatively low risk.
Aston Villa vs Burnley:
2u: Aston Villa ML (-157)
Key Facts:
- When Aston Villa faced a bottom 5 team last season, they won 60% of the matches
- When Burnley faced a team just below bottom half of the table in the 2023/24 season, they lost 50% of the time.
- Villa unbeaten in L3 Premier League games
- Burnley lost 4 in L5 Premier League games
- Under 2.5 goals landed in 80% of these types of matches for Burnley, with just 40% going under for Aston Villa last season.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
Key Facts:
- Newcastle won 40% of games against sides between 11th-15th last season
- Nottingham forest lost 50% of similar games last season
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 70% of similar games for Forest last season
- Important to consider that Forest are in a very different situation than last season, after the bizarre sacking of Nuno Santo
Overall the markets have been pretty well covered here, with the bookies expecting a Newcastle win and plenty of goals.
However our stats suggest that backing Newcastle isn’t necessarily a sure thing, despite the turmoil Forest are in. So no tips from us on this one.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Key Facts:
- Difficult to separate these two sides in terms of matchups and how they compare statistically
- Crystal Palace will hold the edge as they look to extend their unbeaten run to 20 games in all competitions
- The bookmakers have the odds completely open in this encounter, but expect there to be less than 2.5 goals (-162)
We don’t see any value on this match to be placing a bet on it, but we are intrigued to see if Palace can extend their unbeaten run to 20 games.
Saturday 4th October:
2u: Manchester United & Arsenal ML (-125)
1u: Leeds vs Spurs Under 2.5 goals (-118)
Friday 3rd October:
1u: Bournemouth vs Fulham Under 2.5 goals (-137)
