Final:
1u: Rybakina -2.5 games (-133)
Ekaterina Alexandrova made it two finals from four tournaments in the Asian swing after breezing past Diana Shnaider. She hasn’t dropped a set in her route to the final.
Elena Rybakina continues to strengthen her chances of dislodging Jasmine Paolini or Mirra Andreeva from a spot in Riyadh. She smashed the Italian in straight sets earlier today.
Summary:
Alexandrova leads the H2H battle 4-1, but the bookmakers have covered the markets fairly well. Stats suggest Alexandrova should cover the +2.5 game spread, but I’m not entirely convinced.
Key Stats:
Semi Finals:
Paolini vs Rybakina
It’s been a top season for Jasmine Paolini, with a 43-17 record and a singles title victory in her home country, not many have won more in 2025.
One player that has won more games on tour this season is her opponent tomorrow Elena Rybakina. The World number 9 has won 49 matches this season and is making a late surge to try and qualify for the WTA finals in Riyadh.
Both players had contrasting previous round matches. Jasmine Paolini came back from a set down to beat Belinda Bencic 5-7 7-5 6-3. Rybakina lost just two games as she smashed Tomljanovic 6-2 6-0.
Key Stats:
- Rybakina has 5/7 wins in her L7 matches against top 25 opposition.
- Paolini has won just 2/7 in her L7 matches against top 25 opposition.
Whilst the stats would suggest Paolini is a favourable pick in several markets (+3.5 games, +1.5 sets), I wouldn’t confidently recommend either of these selections.
I think recent history would suggest Rybakina is handling top opposition better than the Italian and after a lengthy QF matchup, how much left does Paolini have in the tank?
Our Pick- 1u: Total Games under 21.5 (-110)
Quarter Finals:
Tomljanovic vs Rybakina:
It’s been a challenging season for Tomljanovic, who has lost as many games as she has won and found herself hovering around the top 100.
Rybakina on the other hand has been really strong and still has a chance to creep into the top 8 for the WTA finals in Riyadh. But to keep these hopes alive she must win the Ningbo Open and hope results go her way.
Key Stats:
- Tomljanovic has lost her last 16 matches against top 25 ranked opponents
- Rybakina has won 7/10 of her last 10 matches against opponents ranked 75-125.
- Rybakina has only covered a -5.5 game spread on just 3 of her last 10.
Kessler vs Alexandrova:
Kessler has had a breakout season to rise to the top 35 in the world. She has been competitive against the world’s best. Alexandrova has had her best season to date as well reaching the top 10 in the world and winning a title along with it.
Whilst the stats would suggest that Kessler is a good pick, I think Alexandrova will have too much for the American.
1u: Alexandrova -3.5 Games (-110)
Key stats:
Paolini vs Bencic:
The stats are interesting here because they don’t massively lean towards any clear bets. The only one that statistically looks likely is that Bencic will win a set and cover the +1.5 set spread.
Overall I would give the edge to Paolini in this matchup, I believe her speed and court coverage will wear Bencic down. So that’s my reason for recommending two bets for this match.
I think Paolini -2.5 Games & Bencic +1.5 Sets are both reasonable bets to make. However you will want to analyse in game to capture any notable value.
Round of 16: Rybakina vs Yastremska
1u: Yastremska +5.5 Games (-118)
Despite Rybakina’s dominance of players ranked outside the top 25, she has been lacklustre of late. She also rarely covers a spread so large in these type of matchups.
Yastremska on the other hand has been steadily improving and had a strong year, she will likely make this competitive if she minimises errors.
Key Stats & Information Below:
