Alexandrova vs Kenin:
1u: Kenin +5.5 Games (-130)
Alexandrova made it 2 finals in 4 tournaments last week at the Ningbo Open. The flurry of wins in the Asian swing is capping off a remarkable season in which she has won 47, and lost 23 so far. The Russian number 1 has a 50% win rate against top 25 players in her L20, but is 3-7 in her L10.
Her opponent Sofia Kenin has been on a downward trend since 2021. Hampered by injuries in recent years, she has struggled to make a mark. Particularly in the grand slams, only making the 3rd round 3 times in the last 4 years.
With all that said, the bookmakers heavily favour Alexandrova as you’d expect, she is priced at -5.5 games, & -1.5 sets in the key markets. Stats would suggest Kenin has a strong chance to cover this spread and prolong this match and I’m going to agree. Alexandrova has limited data or history to suggest she will comfortably beat Kenin by such a large margin.
Key Stats:
Muchova vs Bencic:
1u: Muchova -2.5 Games (-110)
Belinda Bencic registered a comfortable 6-4 6-3 win over Varvara Gracheva in the previous round to reach back to back QF’s on the Asian swing. The Swiss player has soared back up the rankings to 13th after missing the 2024 season on maternity leave.
She is up against Karolina Muchova, who has had a steady season and sits 21st in the world. The Czech player has had a mixed season on the big stage… going out in the 1st round of both Roland Garros & Wimbledon, but finishing strong at Flushing Meadows by reaching the QF’s.
Key Stats:
- Bencic has lost 5 consecutive matches against top 25 opposition
- Bencic has covered +2.5 games in just 3 of L10
- Over 21.5 games has landed in 7 of her L10
- Muchova has lost 4 in 5 against top 25 opponents
- Muchova has covered a -2.5 spread in 2 of L10
- Over 21.5 games in L6 matches